Market analysis: How is the current German thoroughbred market developing?
- Julian Schaffelhofer
- Feb 13
- 3 min read
German horse racing is struggling with a number of challenges: too few broodmares, too few owners, race prices that are too low and much more. The list of problems is constantly growing. Year after year, numerous key figures are published that often show trends, but the underlying situation remains tough. I have taken a closer look at the current thoroughbred market in Germany based on the auction results and horse structure in order to realistically assess the situation.
Internationality: A Double-Edged Issue
The increasing internationalization, especially at auctions and in the low-price segment, is causing mixed feelings. Buyers from regions such as Eastern Europe, Asia and North Africa are now a major challenge for many sellers. You often hear on site that people would rather forgo the selling price as long as the horse stays in Germany. The reason for this is not only due to the breeder premiums.
The market for horses in training: A difficult environment
The market for horses in training is currently hit particularly hard. Even though this market faces similarly difficult conditions abroad, it seems to have almost died out in Germany. It is not uncommon for horses to change owners within the same stable if the trainer sees potential for improvement.
In recent years, the market for "normal handicappers" at auctions has deteriorated significantly. The horses are often offered as forced sales - whether to Eastern Europe, the Far East or, rarely, domestically. The horses are supposed to leave the stable in order to reduce running costs.
Why do so few horses stay in Germany?
It is generally known that racing is associated with considerable costs. And also that racing is a hobby and should definitely remain that way. But the current market situation leaves little room to invest in a healthy middle-class horse without literally burning a huge amount of money. The race prices, especially in the Handicap IV and Handicap III classes, are simply too low to even come close to covering costs.
Why are high sums paid for yearlings?
The yearling market is still a sector that is characterized by speculation and hope. The horses are young and intact and every yearling could be the next "diamond in the rough" just waiting to be polished. The highly-prized auction races in particular offer numerous incentives for young horses to rapidly increase their winnings.
In addition, it is precisely the international stud fees of the top stallions that make some yearling prices seem enormous.
But here too, the mid-price segment is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Breeders are often happy if they at least get the stud fee back, as the increased housing costs leave little room for profit.
The role of foreign starters
Some German trainers, such as Frank Fuhrmann and Marian Falk Weißmeier, can be found regularly at the Tattersalls HIT and Goffs HIT auctions. They specifically buy inexpensive starter horses. The market for foreign sprint horses is of particular interest due to the strong focus on stallion breeding in Germany.
Unfortunately, the introduction of high import fees by Deutscher Galopp has made this "foreign shopping" much more difficult for German trainers. I think this is the wrong step. German horse racing should welcome every starting horse and without trainers like Frank Fuhrmann, some race days would certainly not have taken place last year.
What can be done?
A sustainable solution must be found in the long term. Immediate adjustments to prize money in handicap races may be desirable, but they would not lead to healthy growth. The missed developments of the last few decades cannot be remedied overnight. But there are ways to stabilize the financial situation and achieve sustainable growth in the long term. An annual, inflation-adjusted increase in prize money - adjusted to the increased costs - could, like a compound interest effect, lead to a healthy and stable basis. Solid financing is crucial here.
One important thought must never be forgotten: today’s top yearling could be tomorrow’s handicap horse.
JS
